刘媛媛;李力;

• 1:广西医科大学附属肿瘤医院妇科暨区域性高发肿瘤早期防治研究教育部重点室验室
• 2:广西壮族自治区人民医院妇科

摘要(Abstract)：

目的:构建并验证浆液性卵巢癌远期生存概率的列线图,为卵巢癌患者提供个性化的治疗建议和随访策略。方法:共有6957例来自SEER数据库的患者被纳入训练组;外部验证组数据来自于1244例患者的临床资料。基于Cox回归模型构建列线图,使用一致性指数、受试者操作特征曲线、校准图进行验证。绘制Kaplan-Meier曲线比较不同风险亚组之间的生存结果。决策曲线分析用于检验列线图的临床价值。结果:多因素分析结果显示,构建列线图的独立影响因素为年龄、肿瘤级别和AJCC分期。训练组和验证组中,总生存期(OS)的一致性指数分别为0.689(95%CI为0.677～0.701)和0.639(95%CI为0.601～0.670),ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.675和0.661。校准曲线显示列线图预测的生存概率与实际生存3年和5年OS之间具有良好的一致性。不同风险亚组的K-M曲线显示具有显著差异(P<0.001)。决策曲线分析表明列线图的临床价值优于AJCC分期系统。结论:该列线图较好地提供了对卵巢浆液性癌个体化、可视化和量化的生存预测,这将有助于医生为患者提供个性化治疗建议和随访策略。

关键词(KeyWords)： 列线图;浆液性卵巢癌;总生存期;SEER;外部验证

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 刘媛媛;李力;

DOI: 10.13283/j.cnki.xdfckjz.2022.02.006

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